🔗 Share this article Will Scotland finally break their long-standing losing streak? New Zealand have made three modifications to the side that defeated Ireland International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match. The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way. Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory. As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. Key Absences Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern. In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship. Replacement Concerns They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard. Strategic Decisions Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in the previous encounter Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory. That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively. Required Performance During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there. Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. Final Analysis Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over. With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.